Online calculator of statistical significance for poll results

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A layman introduction to the theory behind these calculators can be found here (in Spanish!). There is also a Spanish version of these calculators.

1. Margin of error in the support of one choice

For example, in the support of one political party in election polls.

Number of interviews:
Obtained support: %
Desired confidence level: σ (“in sigmas”)
Uncertainty (1σ): %
Margin of error: %

2. Statistical significance of the advantage between two choices in a poll

Number of interviews:
Support of choice A: %
Support of choice B: %
Uncertainty in the difference (1σ): %
Difference: =
Statistical significance:

3. Statistical significance of difference in one choice between two different polls


This can be used to evaluate the evolution of the support of one choice (e.g. a political party) along time, by comparing the results from two different polls.

Poll #1: Number of interviews:
Poll #1: Resulting support of some choice: %
Poll #2: Number of interviews:
Poll #2: Resulting support of the same choice: %
Uncertainty of the difference (1σ): %
Difference: =
Statistical significance:

References:

  1. “NTP 283: Encuestas: metodología para su utilización”. Margarita Oncins de Frutos. Ministerio de Trabajo y Asuntos sociales de España. (PDF)
  2. Charles H. Franklin, “The ‘Margin of Error’ for Differences in Polls”. 2002 (PDF)
  3. Scheaffer, R.L., Mendenhall III, W., Ott, R.L. & Gerow, K. “Elementary survey sampling”. Duxbury Pr, 2011 (Google Books)

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